Project 07 · Football analytics
Football Probabilities · Expected Threat (xT)
Probabilistic Expected Threat model in football using public StatsBomb data. It estimates the probability of a goal in the next 5 actions.
CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE
Measure the threat generated by a football action by estimating how goal probability changes within a short possession window.
DATA AND DIAGNOSIS
- Public StatsBomb event data is used as the source.
- Spatial and contextual variables are built to represent each action.
- A future goal probability is estimated and the incremental contribution of actions is read.
DELIVERY AND LEARNING
The delivery translates sports events into a probabilistic reading, connecting data preparation, modeling and visual explanation of generated threat.